El Niño to Influence Winter Weather
Published: Friday, November 13, 2026
Indiana winters haven't been as cold and snowy as they were decades ago, and that trend should continue into early 2027.
Austin Pearson, assistant state climatologist, said a "very strong" El Niño weather pattern is setting up that could bring warm, dry air to the Midwest this winter.
Pearson, speaking last Wednesday in Goshen, kicked off a two-day workshop on "Weathering Water Extremes."
With El Niño, warm waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean often produce warm, dry winters in much of the U.S. Of the previous eight years in which the El Niño pattern prevailed in South Bend, Pearson said the area saw warmer than normal conditions in seven of the eight years. Precipitation was below normal in five of the eight years, with the snowfall deficit reaching about 10 inches.
"The one thing that could throw a wrench in all this is that polar vortex that's up at the North Pole," he said.
If the vortex destabilizes, it will create more southerly flows across the U.S., resulting in periods of very cold air for the Midwest.
"But on average, I think we'll end up averaging above normal for temperature," he said.
Looking at overall climate trends, Pearson said Indiana is seeing warmer temperatures but not evenly throughout the year.
From 1895 to 2025, Indiana's average year-round temperature rose from just under 50 degrees F to 52.5 degrees. That works out to an increase of approximately .1 degree per decade.
Broken down by seasons, Indiana's winter and spring seasons are warming at the rate of .2 degrees per decade.
In winters, the biggest change is observed with low nighttime temperatures. They are rising at the rate of .3 degrees per decade.
Summer temperatures are relatively flat when the highs and lows are averaged together. However, looking only at daily highs, they have decreased by .1 degree per decade.
"One of the things that could be causing that is increased water vapor in the atmosphere," he said. "It's limiting how much the atmosphere can warm."
More moisture in the atmosphere means the humidity is higher, preventing rapid temperature swings.
While summer daytime temperatures have decreased, nighttime temperatures have increased by .2 degrees per decade.
"The favorite term by the media now is corn sweat throughout the summer, right?" he said. "Higher moisture content in the air, more cloud cover—that's something you have going with that. So, warming conditions also allow the atmosphere to hold onto more water, so you get higher, more frequent precipitation events on average."
Regarding precipitation, the Hoosier state is receiving an additional .46 inches per decade, from 37 inches in 1895 to 44 inches in 2025. The biggest seasonal increases are in spring (.17 inches per decade) and summer (.19 inches per decade).
While the state is receiving about a half inch of additional rain per decade, individual portions of the state are getting differing amounts. Southern Indiana gets more, while northern Indiana gets less.
He said Indiana, like other areas of the Midwest, is seeing an increase in the frequency and severity of heavy precipitation events.
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