On Day After Election, Class III Milk Price Declines
Published: Friday, November 13, 2026
On the day after, as Republicans reflected on their harsh election rebuke, the Agriculture Department announced the October federal order Class III milk price at $15.16 per hundredweight, down 88 cents from September, $1.75 below October 2025, and the lowest Class III since February. That put the 10-month average at $15.88, down from $18.31 a year ago, and compares to $18.82 in 2024. Last Thursday's Class III futures portended a November price at $17.68; December, $16.76; January, $16.51; February, $16.68; and March at $16.94.
The October Class IV price is $20.54, up $1.60 from September, $6.24 above a year ago, and the highest Class IV price since June. Its 10-month average stands at $18.75, up from $18.11 a year ago, and compares to $20.71 in 2024.
Dairy margins were relatively flat over the last half of October as lower milk prices and feed costs were largely offsetting, according to the latest Margin Watch from Chicago-based Commodity and Ingredient Hedging LLC. Milk prices were pressured by an extremely bearish monthly milk production report, the Margin Watch stated, "While the feed markets continue to succumb to commodity fund liquidation on harvest pressure and generally benign weather conditions in South America amidst steady demand."
"The Class III market had a very volatile finish to October," according to the MW. "As tightness in spot cash cheese along with a shortage in CME-deliverable cheese supplies sent blocks soaring from $1.30 to $1.80 per pound before a drop of 13.75 cents last week, the largest weekly drop since June 2022, with the market stabilizing at $1.60," according to the Margin Watch.
Meanwhile, higher feed prices and another drop in the All Milk price pulled the September milk-feed ratio lower. USDA's Ag Prices report had the September ratio at 1.90, down from 2 in August, and down from 2.40 in September 2025.
The All Milk Price fell for the fourth month in a row, averaging $19.50 per hundredweight, with a 4.28% butterfat test, down 30 cents from August's $19.80, which had a 4.20% test. It compares to $20.40 a year ago, with a 4.24% test.
The national corn price averaged $4.81 per bushel, up 36 cents from August, which followed a 19 cent rise the previous month, and was 81 cents above September 2025. Soybeans averaged $12.20 per bushel, up 10 cents from August, after jumping 50 cents the previous month, and was $2.27 per bushel above a year ago. Alfalfa hay averaged $208 per ton, up $2 from August, and $36 above a year ago.
The September cull price for beef and dairy combined averaged $159 per hundredweight, down $13 from August, after falling $3 the previous month, and was $5 below September 2025, but $87.40 above the 2011 base.
Quarterly milk cow replacements averaged $3,160 per head in October, down $100 from July, but $50 above October 2025. Cows averaged $3,100 per head in California, unchanged from July, but $100 above a year ago. Wisconsin's average, at $3,240, was down $180 from July, and $120 below October 2025.
Milk production margins decreased for the fourth month running, losing 68 cents per hundredweight and were below $10 per hundredweight for the second straight month at $9.23, according to dairy economist Bill Brooks, of Stoneheart Consulting in Dearborn, Mo. "Income over feed costs in September were above the $8 per hundredweight level needed for steady to higher milk production for the 37th month in a row. Input prices were higher in September with all three input commodities inside of the top 10 for September all-time. Feed costs were the sixth highest ever for the month of September and increased 38 cents per hundredweight from August."
Milk income over feed costs for 2026 (using Oct. 30 CME settling futures prices for Class III milk, corn and soybeans, plus the Stoneheart forecast for alfalfa hay) are expected to be $10.61 per hundredweight, a gain of 69 cents per hundredweight versus last month's estimate, according to Brooks. "Income over feed costs in 2026 would be above the level needed to maintain or grow milk production, down $1.80 from 2025's level, and 9 cents lower than the 2021-25 average," he said.
September milk production was up 2.6%, providing plenty for processors and evidenced in this week's Dairy Products report. September cheese output slipped to 1.233 billion pounds, down 2.5% from August, but .7% more than September 2025. Year to date U.S. cheese output hit 11.25 billion pounds, up 2.3% from a year ago.
Italian-style cheeses totaled 541.8 million pounds, down 2.4% from August, but 4.7% more a year ago, putting YTD output at 4.9 billion pounds, up 4.6% from a year ago. Revisions added 17.9 million pounds to the August total. Mozzarella, at 424.6 million pounds, was up 4.4% from a year ago.
American output fell to 464.3 million pounds, down 3% from August, and down 2.5% from a year ago. YTD 4.3 billion pounds had been produced, down .3%.
Cheddar production fell to 310.2 million pounds, down 16.4 million, or 5%, from August, and down 13.6 million, or 4.2%, from a year ago. YTD Cheddar hit 2.99 billion pounds, down .6% from 2025.
Butter output jumped to 204 million pounds, up 16.6 million pounds, or 8.9%, from August, and up 20.1 million pounds, or 10.9%, from a year ago. YTD, 1.9 billion pounds had been churned, up 6.5% from a year ago.
Yogurt production totaled 485.6 million pounds, up 4.4% from a year ago.
Lots of cheese results in lots of whey and dry whey output came in at 71.7 million pounds, down 2.3 million pounds, or 3.1%, from August, but up 2.6 million, or 3.8%, from a year ago. Output for the nine months hit 690.6 million pounds, up 7.8% from a year ago. Whey stocks fell to 58.4 million pounds, down 4.8 million, or 7.6%, from August, but were up 6.4 million pounds, or 12.3%, from a year ago.
Processors continued to route whey solids toward highest value uses, according to the Daily Dairy Report. Production of whey protein isolates and whey protein concentrates with more than 50% protein were up 8.9% and 6.9%, respectively.
Nonfat dry milk output came in at 129.4 million pounds, about the same as in August, but 4.5 million pounds, or 3.7%, more than a year ago. YTD output hit 1.4 billion pounds, up 9.6%. Stocks fell to 206.7 million pounds, down 9.6 million, or 4.5%, from August, and down 10.7 million pounds, or 4.9%, from 2025.
Skim milk powder production dropped to 19.1 million pounds, down 9.8 million pounds, or 33.8%, from August, and down a whopping 27.3 million, or 58.8%, from a year ago. YTD skim milk powder hit 275.9 million pounds, down 25.7%.
Thankfully, U.S. dairy exports remain strong considering the amount of milk and dairy products we are producing. Exports worth $992.3 million left our shores in September, up 28.9% from a year ago, according to the Daily Dairy Report.
September nonfat-skim milk powder sailings were up 7.3% from a year ago and reached their highest level since April 2026, according to HighGround Dairy, and grew year-on-year for the first time since February. HighGround credited strong sales to Mexico, South America, and Central America. "U.S. prices have maintained a premium to Kiwi and EU product for most of 2026," said HGD, "but when September sales were booked, all three markets were nearly at parity, which may explain the volume uptick."
Dry whey posted a 52.6% increase, reaching the second-highest figure on a 30-day adjusted basis, just behind August, according to HGD. Several nations saw sizable year-over-year gains. Canada posted a 316% increase, with "honorable mentions" to China, Indonesia, and Japan.
Cheese exports were up 12.4% from a year ago and up 21% year to date. Butter exports were up 29.3%, as U.S. prices are the cheapest in the world.
USDA's latest weekly slaughter data showed 53,200 dairy cows sent to slaughter the week ending Oct. 24, up 600, or 1.1%, from a year ago. Year to date 2,237,400 cows, had been culled, up 81,200 head, or 3.8%, from a year ago.
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