Economist: Tight Stocks Pushing Up Prices
Published: Friday, September 18, 2026
Prices for corn and soybeans have moved up dramatically over the past month and could keep going higher depending on the results of a key USDA crop report, according to a Purdue University agricultural economist.
Michael Langemeier delivered the latest crop outlook during the Northeast Purdue Ag Center field day last Wednesday near Coesse in Whitley County.
The upward move in crop prices is a result of tight stocks-to-use ratios for both corn and soybeans. Strong export demand coupled with below average yields have pushed cash prices above $5 per bushel for corn and almost $13 per bushel for soybeans on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
"World stocks are tight," Langemeier said. "They are just as tight as they were back in 2012."
If Friday's (Sept. 11) USDA crop report shows lower yields (see related story this page), then Langemeier said 2026-27 crop prices could go even higher—possibly hitting $6 per bushel for corn. But he said there is less than a 25% chance of prices reaching that plateau. Likewise, soybean prices could surpass $13.50 per bushel.
"We're in a good situation for prices to respond sharply to the tight stocks," he said.
High input costs were cited as the top concern among farmers surveyed by Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture.
"Ever since COVID, high input costs have been the biggest concern, substantially higher than low crop prices, policy, rising interest rates and availability of inputs," he said.
While input prices are still high, rising crop prices are fueling optimism that 2027 could be a profitable year for farmers.
Farmers planted 97 million acres of corn this year, the second highest in history. The projected yield was 180.7 bushels per acre. However, Langemeier said that figure might be too high considering the challenging weather this summer.
"The market has incorporated something south of 180.7 (bushels per acre), probably 178," he said. "So, for the report on Friday (Sept. 11), if the yield is 178 or higher, you'll probably actually see prices drop a little bit, because things won't be as tight.
"But, as a lot of people expect, if the yield will be even a little lower than 178 (bushels per acre), that would cause a pop in prices. When you have a weather market like this, it can go in either direction depending on where that yield ends up."
On the demand side, exports are up for both corn and soybeans.
"That's been a key story for the last two years," he said.
For corn, stocks-to-use is near 10%. Anything below 10% will usually trigger a large movement in corn prices, he said. Back in 2012, the stocks-to-use figure was around 9-10%. Prices responded by moving sharply higher.
Langemeier said if the average corn yield comes down, prices could reach $6 per bushel.
"Do I think we're going to get there?" he asked. "No, but it's not impossible. More likely right now is $5.50 (per bushel). That's the cash price."
For soybeans, the stocks-to-use ratio, at 7%, is also tight. The crushing industry is increasing consumption by 3-5% every year, while exports are up 9.2%.
"The exports are strong because we're getting back to normal in terms of what we export to China," he said.
Interestingly, exports represented 50% of U.S. production before 2020 but now are just 35%, the Purdue expert said. The crushing industry has taken up the slack, consuming 60% of U.S. soybeans.
"That's the huge, huge story for soybeans," he said.
Last month, USDA pegged soybean prices at $11.40 per bushel for the 2026-27 marketing year. However, with the market expecting lower yields and a tighter stocks-to-use percentage, Langemeier expects USDA to raise that forecast. The price this fall should be around $13 per bushel "and still climbing," he said.
Langemeier expects soybeans to be very competitive with corn next year but doesn't expect a major acreage shift from corn to soybeans.
This year, farmers planted a record 182 million acres of corn and soybeans. With expectations of record crops, prices were rather low until the weather became a factor in August. Now, prices are on the upswing. Wheat continues to lose acres to corn and soybeans, now at 45 million acres.
Average net farm income for a west central Indiana farm with a 50-50 corn-soybean mix is projected to be $83 per acre, according to Langemeier. That's below the 20-year average of $140 per acre but higher than $45 per acre last year and minus $14 in 2024.
With higher crop prices, farmers probably won't get any government payments this year, he said.
Langemeier also addressed the outlook for Indiana farmland values and cash rents.
He expects farmland values next year will hold steady, ranging from slightly negative to slightly positive. Cash rents will increase slightly, keeping pace with inflation.
"So, if you look at all the factors that impact land, we're mixed," he said. "And in my experience when we have mixed—some positive and some negative—we tend to have very stable land values."
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