With More Cows, U.S. Milk Production Rises in July
Published: Friday, September 4, 2026
U.S. milk production remained abundant in July, topping strong output a year ago, which was up 4.2% from July 2024. The Agriculture Department's latest data reported July output at 20.1 billion pounds, up 2.2% from July 2025, and follows a 3% rise in June. The 24-state total came in at 19.4 billion pounds, up 2.3%.
StoneX says output was stronger than anticipated and the higher fat and protein in the milk puts component adjusted production up 3.5% from July 2025.
June output in the 50 states was revised up 124 million pounds to 19.8 billion, up 3% from a year ago, instead of the 2.3% originally announced. The 24-state total was revised up to 19.1 billion, up 3.1% instead of the 2.4% reported.
July cow numbers totaled 9.71 million, unchanged from the June count, which was revised up a whopping 33,000 head. The herd was up 199,000, or 2.1%, from a year ago, making it the largest in over 30 years. The 24-state count, at 9.267 million, was up 2,000 from June's total which was revised up 34,000 head, and up 185,000, or 2%, from a year ago.
July milk per cow averaged 2,075 pounds in the 50 states, up just 3 pounds, or .1%, from a year ago, as hot weather and wildfire smoke put stress on cows. The 24 state average, at 2,093 pounds, was up 5 pounds, or .2%, from 2025. The June average was revised up 6 pounds in both.
California milk totaled 3.5 billion pounds, down 28 million, or .8% from a year ago. Cow numbers were down 1,000 and output per cow was down 15 pounds.
Wisconsin produced 2.85 billion pounds, up 72 million, or 2.6%, from a year ago. Cow numbers were up 27,000 head with output per cow up 10 pounds.
Idaho milk was up 34 million pounds, or 2.1%, from a year ago, thanks to 12,000 more cows and 10 pounds more per cow. Indiana was up 5% on 9,000 more cows and a 5 pound gain per cow. Kansas registered the biggest percentage gain, up 15.4%, on 32,000 more cows and a 5 pound gain per cow. Michigan was up 3.1% on 14,000 more cows but output per cow was unchanged. Minnesota was up 3.7% on 14,000 more cows and 10 pounds more per cow. New Mexico was up 1.2% on 2,000 more cows and a 5-pound gain per cow.
USDA's latest weekly slaughter report showed 53,400 dairy cows sent to slaughter the week ending Aug. 15, up 1,800, or 3.5%, from a year ago. Year to date, 1,705,000 head had been culled, up 70,900, or 4.3%, from a year ago.
President Trump announced last week that 664 million pounds of ground beef could be imported into the U.S. over the next 90 days and would be sold at a 25% discount to current prices. Beef imports are not off to a good start as over 29,000 pounds of beef imported from Argentina was recalled in early August because it skipped USDA mandatory inspection.
HighGround Dairy stated the 664 million pounds Trump announced last week amounts to about 7% of the annual total eaten by American consumers. "So it is not insignificant. While the measure should take some pressure off consumers, it seems like prices will drift higher again as this beef is imported, purchased, and eaten. U.S. beef producers have expressed dissatisfaction with the policy and concern that it will do little to rebuild the beef herd while limiting their income after years of drought and negative margins."
The National Milk Producers Federation warned "Beef imports will have unintended consequences for U.S. cattle and dairy producers." A NMPF press release stated, "Cull cow and calf sales are a key economic driver for U.S. dairy farmers and equates to 20% of annual dairy farm income and greater than 20% of the U.S. beef production is now being supplied by dairy farms. Current beef prices are an important reason why we have the most dairy cows in the U.S. since 1992. Policy-created disruption threatens the billions of dollars invested by U.S. dairy farmers and manufacturers to grow supply of beef and dairy products."
NMPF says "Removing the tariff isn't likely to lower consumer prices, as the price of this imported product is already well below that of the comparable domestically produced product derived from U.S. cull dairy and beef cows, but it will certainly improve the profit margin for the exporter. The more consequential impact will be a delay in the necessary economic signal sent to U.S. beef producers to increase production, which may reduce domestic supplies in the longer term," says NMPF.
Meanwhile, beef imports from Mexico are resuming following the shutdown due to concerns over the outbreak of screwworm there. The USDA outlined a new plan that it says will "establish a quarterly cycle for inviting and reviewing stakeholder feedback" on screwworm.
July butter stocks were down from June and a year ago, according to the Agriculture Department's latest Cold Storage report. July 31 butter holdings fell to 321.4 million pounds, down 10.5 million pounds or 3.2% from June, and 10.1 million or 3% below July 2025. June's total was revised down 157,000 pounds.
American type cheese stocks fell to 811.5 million pounds, down 11.3 million, or 1.4%, from the June level, and down 2 million, or .2%, from a year ago.
The "other" cheese inventory climbed to 598 million pounds, up 9.8 million, or 1.7%, from June, and up 5 million, or .8%, from a year ago. The June total was revised up 2 million pounds.
Cheese stocks totaled 1.433 billion pounds, unchanged from June, but up 5 million, or .4%, from a year ago. Revisions added 2.4 million pounds to the June total. The Aug. 24 Daily Dairy Report stated that data reflected summer slowdowns in milk and dairy product output.
StoneX stated, "July Cheese Stocks/Use justified a price closer to $1.80 per pound versus the $1.60 we were trading at. At these current levels and with a higher EU cheese market, one could argue for a renewed export bid but that has yet to materialize and the market still seems more worried about further milk production growth for now but the risk for more export demand remains relevant. StoneX adds "The stocks/use for third quarter butter would support levels closer to $2 but the trend this year still has it deviating well away from that."
CME block Cheddar closed the last Friday of August at $1.4825 per pound, down 4.50 cents on the week, after losing 7.25 cents the previous week, and hit the lowest it's been since July 6, and 29.25 cents below a year ago. The barrels gained a penny, then gave it back, and finished at $1.5650, unchanged, and 21.50 cents below a year ago. There were 38 sales of block on the week.
Mild August temperatures in the Central region have supported steadier milk flows and contacts tell Dairy Market News that cooler conditions have helped strengthen production. Plant downtime has contributed to spot milk availability and some contacts indicate that any available spot loads are being directed toward Class I facilities as bottlers prepare for the school year. Spot prices at mid-week ranged from flat-class to $2 over. Cheese production is steady and demand is mixed, according to DMN.
Milk output in the West continues to fill cheese needs and volumes improving week over week because of seasonal conditions. However components are down.
Spot milk demand is low. No change in the pace of cheese output was reported. Domestic cheese demand is light. Food service demand is soft, though the start of school is providing a small uptick. Export demand remains steady, with anticipated slowing due to evolving international trade conditions.
Butter saw some ups and downs this week, but it closed last Friday at $1.4625 per pound, unchanged on the week, and 58.25 cents below a year ago, on 93 sales.
Midwest Class I processors continue to secure milk for the school year but the cream supply is steady and it was noted that a substantial volume continues to move to Mexico. Most spot cream offerings are reported to be directed toward Class II and Class III manufacturers. As a result, butter makers in the region indicate limited spot cream is reaching Class IV processors, says DMN.
Grade A nonfat dry milk closed last Friday at $1.8650 per pound, up 6.50 cents on the week, highest since June 9, and 60.50 cents above a year ago, with 16 sales.
HighGround Dairy says ,"Various factors are at play in the current price run-up including stronger export deals completed when the price was at its lows, rumored product on hold by the Food and Drug Administration, the school milk draw beginning again, and strong demand for skim solids for ultra-filtered milk, cottage cheese, and yogurt, each of which has the ability to tighten up supplies to the NFDM dryers."
Dry whey finished last Friday at 73.75 cents per pound, 3.50 cents higher on the week, highest since Feb. 19, and 16.75 cents above a year ago, with one sale.
Fluid milk sales jumped in June Dairy Month. The USDA's latest data showed packaged sales at 3.3 billion pounds, up 3.3% from June 2025, and follows a 2.1% drop in May. Conventional product sales came in at 3.1 billion pounds, up 3.2% from a year ago. Organic sales, at 239 million, were up 3.4% from a year ago, and represented a typical 7.2% of total milk sales in the month.
Whole milk sales totaled 1.3 billion pounds, up 7% from a year ago, and up 3.1% for the six month period. Whole milk represented 39.1% of total sales for the month. Skim milk sales, at 125 million pounds, were down 21.5% from a year ago and down 11.1% year to date.
Packaged fluid sales, January to June totaled 21.1 billion pounds, up .1% from 2025. Conventional product sales totaled 19.6 billion pounds, up .1% from a year ago. Organic products, at 1.5 billion pounds, were down .3%, and represented 7.1% of total milk sales for the year so far.
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