Dry Conditions Are Ahead for Indiana Agriculture
Published: Friday, July 31, 2026
Aside from southern and far northern Indiana, the rest of the state has generally received below normal precipitation over the past 30 days. While only a few localized areas show percentages below the 30% of-normal level (one of the factors considered to recommend the Abnormally Dry (D0) classification to the U.S. Drought Monitor authors), other factors are suggesting something may be developing.
A challenge has been the very spotty nature of heavy precipitation events in the broad region that has caused localized flooded areas nearby areas that seem to keep missing out. The Indiana state drought monitoring team has also been looking at other factors such as evapotranspiration, soil moisture, stream and lake levels, and groundwater levels. Several of those factors did suggest the area was already abnormally dry, so without significant additional precipitation most of Indiana is likely to enter the D0 category soon.
Rumors will start to spread about a possible "flash drought" (i.e., a rapid intensification of drought). It is too soon to say if this will be imminent. To be strongly considered for this, a 2-category drop of the U.S. Drought Monitor should be justifiable over a two- to three-week period. Indiana currently only has a small area of D0 classification around the DeKalb County area, so conditions across Indiana would have to deteriorate quickly.
Unfortunately, the seven-day precipitation forecast as well as the 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day climate outlooks are not looking particularly wet. The amount of rain expected through July 30 will fall with most of that falling in very localized areas sporadically over that period. Combine that with expected clear skies and high evapotranspiration rates, and the moisture on the ground and within plants could be depleted quickly.
Beyond a week, climate outlook models are slightly favoring below normal precipitation. This does not necessarily mean no precipitation, but how might this impact crops and other environmental conditions over the next several weeks?
Modified growing degree-day accumulations since April 15 continue to stay 1-3 days ahead of average, with totals ranging from YY to ZZ units.
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