Speaker Looks for Bull Markets
Published: Friday, February 20, 2026
Area dairy farmers learned about "The Road Ahead" during an Indiana Regional Dairy Meeting last Wednesday in Plymouth.
Mike Rusch, sales director for Total Farm Marketing, provided an economic outlook for the 50 producers and industry professionals in attendance.
In 2025, farmers saw record high milk production, which caused prices to end the year on a low note. Rusch said dairies continue to struggle in this low-price environment. On the positive side, high beef prices help buffer the bottom line for farms that sell steers for beef.
"Unless you're just new to producing, you've been through this before," he said, referring to rollercoaster markets.
He said it's important to think objectively and to learn how to manage these periods of low prices.
For example, Class III milk prices peaked at $21.20 per hundredweight in January of last year. That represented an opportunity to lock in prices.
"If you use tools like DRP or any type of contracting, you had some opportunity early in the year to protect a fair amount of that washout that happened," he said.
Milk prices have been in a bear market for 16 months—from September of 2024 to the end of 2025, he said. If you look at prices from a historical perspective, bear markets last for about that length of time, 16 months, while bull markets are shorter, 10 to 11 months.
"I'm not telling you things are going back to where they were," he said. "We just need to have some historical views."
Cheese is the main driver of Class III milk prices, but Rusch said Class III prices could see downside pressure until cheese moves up again. That represents his opinion from a technical standpoint.
The milk market has been volatile so far in 2026.
"You need to be nimble in your marketing decisions," Rusch said.
If producers expect a rally to occur, it makes sense to take advantage of the upswing, he said. Examples include DRP coverage, put option coverage or contracting.
"Take advantage of that run-up when you see that happen," he said. "When these markets move really quick, typically there is a lot of reversal potential."
The outlook for 2026 is mixed, with plenty of "what if's," according to Rusch. Part of the uncertainty revolves around feed prices. Corn prices are "cheap," he said, but could move higher. He advised dairies to protect low prices.
On the positive side, there is some bullish sentiment in the market right now. He expects milk prices to hit bottom sometime this spring before rebounding. Cheese demand is strong, with record exports last year. That trend should continue as consumers look to increase protein consumption, Rusch said.
On another note, he said farms that use beef-on-dairy are earning about $4 per hundredweight more because of their exposure to high beef prices. However, he noted that cattle prices follow a six-year cycle.
"As we all know, markets don't go up forever," he said. "I'm not saying it's going to end this year, but it will eventually come to a peak, and usually when markets go up that long that strong, that drop-off is pretty severe."
From a marketing perspective, Rusch encouraged farmers to take advantage of risk management tools to lock in low feed prices and protect milk revenue if there is a rally in the market.
Updating producers on news from the Indiana Dairy Producers, Executive Director Steve Obert said IDP serves producers in three ways: education, policy development and advocacy.
"When you have issues, whether it's with a state agency or local zoning issues, you can use Indiana Dairy Producers as a resource to help you work through those," he said.
Membership is $50 per year.
Regarding education, IDP offers regional dairy meetings in February. However, Obert said the industry will gather in January 2027 for the Indiana Dairy Forum in French Lick. That event will be held for the first time in conjunction with the Indiana Milk Quality Conference.
A new initiative launched this year has been a program for Spanish-speaking farm managers and leaders. He said the program was attended by about 50 people and was successful. One topic was conflict resolution.
IDP also conducted on-farm workshop training for dairy producers.
Regarding policy, Obert said IDP wants to reformulate its policy priorities.
"One of the things that we've been really involved in over the past few years is trying to find solutions for securing our workforce," he said. "If you watch the news, you know that immigration is a hot topic and has been for some time."
He noted 70-80% of the U.S. dairy farm workforce is immigrant workers.
"We have a huge stake in this debate, and we have to be present," he said.
According to Obert, IDP is hoping to create grassroots support with the members of Congress from Indiana.
"We are pushing hard to get a face-to-face meeting with Sen. Banks, because Sen. Banks is very closely aligned with President Trump on these issues," Obert said. "We feel like that may be the best way to get our viewpoint to the president."
In other IDP news, Carrie Jo Bollenbacher of Argos is stepping off the board after her term ends next month. She is serving as IDP president. The next leader will be selected at IDP's annual meeting in March.
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