Grazing in Michiana
Over the past several years in my current position with the NRCS and conservation districts, I've heard and talked to many livestock producers about how unpredictable weather seems to be getting. Patterns we once took for granted when it was safe to put animals out on pasture in spring, how long the grazing season lasts, how much rain we get. More and more it seems that these patterns just aren't reliable anymore. As someone who works daily with producers on soil, forage and grazing management issues, I can say with confidence that this isn't just anecdotal.
Scientific data clearly shows that the climate in our region is changing, and those changes are already affecting grazing systems, pasture health and livestock performance. What we're seeing today, the wetter springs, warmer winters and bigger swings in rainfall is all part of a longer trend that demands practical adaptation on farms if we are going to maintain productive grazing systems.
Looking at climate trends for the Great Lakes region over the last five years puts some of these changes into sharp focus. From 2017 through 2024, average annual temperatures across the region were about 1.1 degrees F higher compared with the prior four decades, and the number of days with at least 2 inches of precipitation increased by around 6%, indicating wetter, more intense precipitation events.
Average air temperatures continue to trend above historical normals, with warmer winters in particular becoming more common, and more precipitation falling as rain rather than snow in the late winter months.
In 2025, spring precipitation across the basin was about 116% of normal, meaning soils were wetter and pasture access was delayed in many areas. Annual precipitation totals continue to vary by season, but long-term trends clearly show increased rainfall and heavier events, especially in winter and spring, across much of the region.
One climate assessment reported total annual precipitation has increased about 14% since the mid-20th century, with future projections indicating continued increases in most seasons. These changes in temperature and precipitation affect every aspect of livestock grazing, from when we can turn animals out to pasture, to soil conditions, forage growth and animal health.
One of the more noticeable patterns producers have been talking about, myself included, is how much wetter springs have become. I have fond memories of my father and I turning out the ewes and lambs in the early spring, as we generally expected a firm pasture by late April or early May depending on the winter, but now producers and myself are seeing soggy pastures well into May when the ground can dry out enough again.
When soil remains saturated, even after a few warm days, that soil structure is vulnerable to compaction. Walking fields with a soil probe or checking for smearing when you push a shovel in are practical ways to assess whether the ground is ready for grazing.
If soil smears easily or you see hoof deformities in the soil, that's a sign the soil is too wet to support livestock without damage. As one Midwest cattle producer recently told me, "I've lost count of how many springs I've waited for firm ground now, it seems like every year it's a gamble."
Waiting until soils have had time to drain, even if the calendar says it's time for turnout, protects pasture productivity in the long run.
In addition to delayed turnout, wetter springs and warmer winters have shifted the nature of snow and ice in our region. Lake ice cover, which traditionally served as a kind of temperature buffer each winter, has been dramatically reduced in recent years. The Great Lakes began 2024 with the smallest amount of ice cover on record, a departure from historical norms where roughly half the lakes' surface would be ice-covered at mid-winter.
Declining ice not only affects lake-effect snow patterns but also contributes to warmer winter temperatures and shifts in soil moisture entering spring.
"Ice cover is down and the season is shorter," one climatologist noted, "and that's something we're seeing across winters now."
These shorter, warmer winters mean soils don't freeze as deeply or for as long, leading to prolonged wet soil conditions in early spring that delay grazing access.
Not every year is the same, of course. There are still dry falls and occasional drought conditions, but the overall trend toward warmer and wetter conditions in certain seasons is unmistakable. Longer frost-free periods have slightly extended the potential growing season, but more frequent late frosts after early green-up increase the risk of frost damage to forage plants. Warming temperatures and increased humidity also favor plant pests and pathogens, which adds another layer of complexity to pasture management.
As climate patterns shift, scientists and producers are turning to new tools to monitor pasture conditions and make data-informed decisions. Remote sensing technologies, which measure vegetation and soil conditions from satellites or drones, are becoming increasingly accessible.
Vegetation indices like the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) use sensor data to quantify plant health and density over large areas, helping producers identify stressed or underperforming pasture zones without setting foot in every paddock. NDVI and similar metrics can hint at where forage production is lagging or where moisture stress might be limiting growth.
Ground-based soil moisture sensors and weather stations tied to farm networks provide real-time soil water data, allowing more precise decisions about when to graze, rest, or move livestock. Livestock tracking technology using GPS collars can also inform managers about grazing patterns, helping avoid overuse of wet areas while maximizing forage utilization.
Combined, these tools help producers adapt to the variability and unpredictability brought on by climate change.
Drones with multispectral cameras provide detailed imagery of pasture conditions at a scale and frequency that was unthinkable a decade ago. These images help producers detect subtle changes in plant vigor, soil moisture differences, and areas of potential erosion or compaction before they become obvious on the ground.
Satellite imagery, too, is valuable, especially when integrated with local soil and weather data. Such technologies allow us to see trends over time rather than making decisions based solely on today's conditions. In areas where soil moisture and forage growth are tracked regularly, management can shift from reactive to proactive.
For instance, if a pasture shows signs of stagnating growth after a major rain event, producers can adjust paddock rotations to give that area extra rest before grazing it again. Even simple mobile apps that integrate pasture maps, animal movement data and climate information make it easier for producers to plan grazing moves around weather patterns rather than against them.
Some producers have found that combining traditional observation with data from sensors or remote imagery gives them the best of both worlds: the intuition developed from years on the land with the precision that modern data provides.
Despite the challenges, adaptation can bring opportunity. I recently spoke with a sheep producer in northern Indiana who said, "My biggest change has been thinking of spring turnout not as a date on the calendar, but as a soil condition. Once I made that shift, my pastures held up better, and I saw less mud damage around waterers." That simple mindset, where decisions are driven by soil readiness and plant health rather than the calendar, is exactly what researchers are recommending as climate variability increases.
Here in the Great Lakes region, where precipitation patterns and temperatures are trending away from historical norms, grazing systems that are flexible, informed by data, and grounded in soil and forage science will outperform rigid systems.
The key takeaway for livestock producers is that climate variability isn't a distant threat; it's here, already and it's reshaping grazing management as we know it in real time, and in ways far different then our forefathers could have predicted or even known about. Using soil assessments, pasture monitoring technologies and adaptive grazing planning, producers can weather wetter springs, warmer winters and bigger swings in precipitation without compromising soil health or animal performance.
The future of grazing in the Upper Midwest depends on how well we adjust our practices to match the changing climate, and the good news is that the tools and research are rapidly catching up to the challenge.