WASDE Report Dampens Mood at Farm Show
Published: Friday, January 23, 2026
The January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report brought bad news farmers attending to the Fort Wayne Farm Show. It predicted bigger ending stocks and weaker export demand for corn and soybeans. This pushed prices down and created a tense and uncertain mood among farmers, who are already expecting tight margins this year.
Farmers still walked through the aisles, but almost everyone had a story of struggle. Some had acres that didn't pay off, others faced rising production costs, and many dealt with markets changing at the worst times. Many could point to years when the pressure felt just like this, and 2026 looked like it could be another one of them.
The conversations that matter most didn't slow down.
Across lending desks, equipment lots and insurance offices, the message was consistent: the report didn't create the problems; it clarified them. The people who work closest with farmers, those who see the balance sheets, machinery choices and insurance plans, all said the same thing in different ways. The WASDE didn't break the year. It simply made the existing cracks easier to see.
"Customers are pretty down. They're doom and gloom, even with a record crop," said Bob Rhodes of F&M Bank. Some farmers priced grain when the market was high, but many didn't. Now, Rhodes said, a lot of grain is still sitting unpriced, and the uncertainty is weighing on people. The crop was big, but the margins weren't.
Equipment dealers saw the same tension from a different angle.
"Producers continue to wear out equipment," said Scott Helt of Redline Equipment. "They may postpone things, but they still have needs." Even in a down year, the machinery keeps aging. The acres still are planted. The combines still run. And when something breaks, it has to be fixed, whether the markets are friendly.
Insurance agents felt the pressure too, though they framed it in longer cycles.
"Anybody who's lived through the farming community over the last 10, 20 or 30 years has seen these peaks and valleys," said Jason Williamson of Williamson Crop Insurance. "It's not good, but it's something we expect."
For him, the report was another valley—not the first, and not the last.
The stress was shared, even if the work was different. And whether the conversation was about cash flow, equipment, or insurance guarantees, every expert pointed farmers back to the same starting point: know your numbers.
"What are you doing with your operation to make it work with these numbers?" asked Micah Hefty of F&M Bank. If the answer is nothing, how do you expect things to improve? Hefty has worked in this field for 33 years. He has seen many cycles of high and low prices and everything in between. His message was simple: the numbers don't lie, and they don't fix themselves.
Williamson echoed the same idea from the insurance side.
"Know your bottom line. Know your breakeven. One report shouldn't drive all your decisions." Insurance, he said, smooths out the valleys, not eliminates them.
"We can guarantee you 75, 80, 85, 90 or 95 percent of what your proven history has been." That stability matters most in years like this one.
Even equipment decisions came back to math. Helt said farmers are adjusting in small but meaningful ways.
"Maybe you don't buy four tires—you buy two," he said. "Or maybe you put a (rebuild) engine in it and go another five years." Those choices add up. They're not glamorous, but they keep the operation moving.
Rhodes put the lender's version bluntly: "We have to make sure it cash flows. Your responsibility is to pay us back."
Cash flow, he said, is the backbone of every decision—whether it's selling grain, restructuring debt or deciding whether to buy or fix a piece of equipment.
The adjustments farmers are making—or avoiding—cut across every part of the operation. Rhodes pointed to cropping shifts: "It might be as simple as switching corn acres to bean acres."
Helt saw a similar recalibration in machinery: "A lot of our business is helping the customer reduce his risk in the coming years."
Hefty said some decisions are harder: "Do we need to make some equipment changes and liquidate some stuff?" And Williamson reminded farmers that insurance is built for exactly these moments: "We try to give them the guarantees that put them in a position to be successful."
Even expansion hasn't stopped entirely.
"Some producers are still gaining more ground," Helt said. "Those people have different needs."
In a year when many are tightening belts, others are still growing—and that creates its own set of decisions.
Across all of it, the theme was the same: adjust, don't freeze. The people who work with farmers every day said the worst thing a producer can do is disappear or delay the hard conversations.
The scale of today's losses is something all four men acknowledged.
"Twenty years ago, we could set up a three‑ or five‑year loan from the losses," Hefty said.
Today, the amounts are so big that it takes longer to pay them back. Rhodes gave an example of the size he's seeing. Some people have carryover losses of $1.5 to $2 million over one or two years. This changes the timeline. They change the options. They change the conversations.
Helt saw the same risk from the dealer's side. A lender told me, "If you have collateral, we will lend you money." I said, "Yes, but enough to go broke." We need to be careful with that. The wrong loan at the wrong time can make a terrible year even worse.
Williamson pointed to past disasters as reminders that recovery is possible.
"I look at a year like 2012 or a year like 2019. They had a good year and moved forward."
The valleys don't last forever, he said, but they require planning.
Across lending, equipment and insurance, the guidance converged.
"They can't be afraid to talk to their lender. You can't hide," Hefty said. Williamson added, "Don't let one report or one day affect it. Take a calm, rational approach."
Helt emphasized partnership: "We have teams in service, parts and sales who can walk a customer through those options."
And Rhodes underscored the relationship: "Your banker is your partner—someone you need to have a relationship with in the good times and the bad."
And sometimes, the only path forward is the hardest one.
"Sometimes you have to sell a farm or a piece of equipment to get back to even and start over," Rhodes said. It's not advice anyone wants to hear, but it's part of the reality of farming in a year when margins are thin and losses are large.
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