Dairy Gets Spotlight in New U.S. Dietary Guidelines
Published: Friday, January 16, 2026
A major announcement last week came from U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025-30. A joint press release stated the guidelines are "the most significant reset of federal nutrition policy in decades," and was a literal turning upside down of the famous Food Pyramid.
"The new guidelines deliver a clear, common-sense message to the American people: eat real food," the release stated. "The U.S. faces a national health emergency. Nearly 90% of health care spending goes toward treating chronic disease, much of it linked to diet and lifestyle. More than 70% of American adults are overweight or obese, and nearly 1 in 3 adolescents has prediabetes. Diet-driven chronic disease now disqualifies many young Americans from military service, threatening national readiness and limiting opportunity," the release stated. The guidelines drew praise from the National Milk Producers Federation which said the guidelines "Recognize dairy's critical role in a healthy diet."
"These guidelines return us to the basics," Kennedy said. "American households must prioritize whole, nutrient-dense foods, protein, dairy, vegetables, fruits, healthy fats and whole grains, and dramatically reduce highly processed foods. This is how we Make America Healthy Again."
"As also shown in the scientific report that preceded today's guidelines, reducing or eliminating dairy from the diet leads to undernourishment in key nutrients for millions of Americans," said NMPF. "These guidelines encourage consumption of dairy nutrients critical to human health. Meanwhile, not all fats are created equal, and because the guidelines acknowledge this, dairy's benefits are better reflected in this iteration of the guidelines," according to NMPF. The International Dairy Foods Assn. also gave the guidelines a thumbs up.
Meanwhile, you'll recall that November milk output was up a hefty 4.5% from a year ago. Components were also up, and USDA's latest Dairy Products report shows how the milk was used.
Cheese output totaled 1.218 billion pounds, down 3.4% from October, but up 5.9% from November 2024. Output in the 11 months amounted to 13.4 billion pounds, up 2.5% from 2024.
Wisconsin provided 294.8 million pounds of the November total, down 4.2% from October, and .2% below November 2024. California produced 202.8 million, down 1.2% from October, but 2% more than a year ago. Idaho contributed 84.9 million pounds, down 7.5% from October, but up 6.4% from a year ago.
Mozzarella production totaled 415.2 million pounds, up 7.2% from a year ago, with year to date (YTD) output hitting 4.5 billion pounds, up 2.5% from 2024.
American cheese, at 474 million pounds, was down 3.7% from October, but up 5.6% from a year ago. YTD American hit 5.3 billion pounds, up 3.7%.
Italian-style cheeses totaled 526.2 million pounds, down 2.7% from October but up 6.8% from a year ago, with YTD at 5.7 billion pounds, up 3.3%.
Cheddar output, the cheese traded at the CME, slipped to 322.7 million pounds, down 5.6 million, or 1.7%, from October's level which was revised down 1.3 million pounds from last month's report, but was up a whopping 14.4 million, or 4.7%, from a year ago. YTD Cheddar stood at 3.6 billion pounds, up 4.9% from 2024.
Butter production fell to 179.8 million pounds, down 6.4 million pounds, or 3.4%, from October, but was up 3.8 million, or 2.2%, from a year ago. YTD output hit 2.2 billion pounds, up a market hurting 6.2% from a year ago.
Yogurt production totaled 415.8 million pounds, up 8.3% from a year ago, with output for the year standing at 4.8 billion pounds, up 7.7%.
Hard ice cream, at 49.8 million pounds, was down 2% from 2024. YTD production reached 671.6 million pounds, down 1.9% from a year ago.
Dry whey production slipped to 64.8 million pounds, down 3.1 million pounds, or 4.5%, from October, but was virtually unchanged from a year ago. YTD whey output hit 759.6 million pounds, down 3.2% from a year ago. Whey stocks climbed to 54.1 million pounds, up 3.8 million, or 7.6%, from October, but were down 3.1 million pounds, or 5.3%, from a year ago.
Nonfat dry milk output dropped to 108.3 million pounds, down 12.3 million, or 10.2%, from October, and down 11.8 million pounds, or 9.8%, from a year ago. YTD, 1.5 billion pounds had been produced, up .7% from 2024. Stocks fell to 198.6 million pounds, down 9.4 million, or 4.5%, from October, but were up 7.1 million pounds, or 3.7%, from 2024.
Skim milk powder production climbed to 40.5 million pounds, up 5 million pounds, or 14.1%, from October, but was down 4.5 million, or 9.9%, from a year ago. YTD SMP hit 445.2 million pounds, down 18.8% from 2024.
Robust cheese production again created a hefty whey stream. The Daily Dairy Report stated, "Processors made 18.3 million pounds of whey protein isolates, 15.6% more than the prior year. They also stepped up production of the highest-protein category of concentrates, drying 19.2% more than in November 2024."
StoneX analysis zeroed in on the Cheddar data and stated, "It is an important reminder that it is the availability of fresh Cheddar that drives the CME spot price, and there is always a risk that cheese makers will cut Cheddar production even if total cheese production is growing well."
USDA's latest slaughter data showed 42,500 dairy cows were culled the week ending Dec. 27, down 14,300 head from the previous week but 2,600, or 6.5%, more than a year ago. Total to date, 2,626,200 cows had exited the dairy business, down 82,300 head, or 3%, from a year ago.
HighGround Dairy points out, "While 2025 is set to finish the year with the lowest total dairy cow slaughter since 2008, a trend is emerging as farmers take advantage of strong cattle prices. Some may be exiting the business, while others may be generating cash flow. Although the milk price outlook is not great, farmers have not yet received a bad milk check, and increased culling will likely be a headline in 2026," according to HGD.
Checking Chicago, block Cheddar closed last Friday at $1.3150 per pound, down 7.50 cents on the week, lowest CME price since June 27, 2023, and 50.50 cents below a year ago. The barrels held at $1.40, where they've been since Dec. 23, 2025, 45 cents below a year ago. Thirty-three loads of block were traded on the week.
Milk output is strong in the Central region, reports Dairy Market News. Demand for Class III milk was up from last week, but somewhat lackluster. Reported spot prices for Class III milk ranged from $5-under to $1-under at mid-week. Cheese production was up from the holiday weeks. Domestic demand was strengthening, says DMN, and steady from international interests.
Spot milk was available in the West, even though bottlers were busier with educational institutions back in session. Cheese output was steady for the most part. Domestic demand was stronger but not the prices. International demand was somewhat lighter to steady. Market sentiment is bearish says DMN.
Butter continues to hemorrhage as a lot of it moved to Chicago this week, plunging to $1.30 per pound last Friday, 7.50 cents lower on the week, lowest price since Feb. 10, 2021 when it was trading at $1.28, and is now $1.30 below a year ago. A whopping 62 loads traded hands on the week at the CME.
HighGround Dairy warns, "Heavy milkfat supplies in the U.S. are causing butter production to soar and inventories of CME-eligible salted product have piled up."
Cream production is strong in the Central region, says DMN. Demand from Class II and Class III processors was strengthening. Some butter makers were purchasing more cream than they were during the holiday weeks. Churning was more active this week and plants were running busy schedules. Domestic butter demand is steady while export interest is strong, says DMN.
Grade A nonfat dry milk climbed to $1.2650 per pound last Friday, 9 cents higher on the week, and the highest it's been since Aug. 18, 2025, but still a dime below a year ago. There were 18 CME sales for the week.
Dry whey closed the week 2.50 cents lower, slipping to 70 cents per pound, 4 cents below a year ago, with two sales put on the board.
October U.S. dairy exports totaled 531 million pounds, up 9.8% from October 2024. The increase came despite a 5.2% drop in shipments to Mexico, according to HighGround Dairy. Sailings to China fell 15%, though exports to other regions more than offset the declines. Exports were up to Canada, Southeast Asia, Australia, South Korea and Japan. Nearly 17% of U.S. milk solids were exported, says HGD, totaling just over 434.7 million pounds, up 6.3%.
Cheese exports soared to an all-time high 121.4 million pounds, up 35.8% from 2024, thanks to U.S. very competitive summer prices when much of these sales were booked, according to HighGround. Mexico increased imports by 11.2%.
Butter exports amounted to 16.3 million pounds, up 170.2%. Dry whey, at 38.7 million pounds, was up 19.9%. Nonfat-skim milk powder exports totaled 135.6 million pounds, up just .3%.
HighGround Dairy warns, "Milk production worldwide is not slowing, contributing to the current oversupply. With New Zealand, Europe, South America and the U.S. growing milk volumes, fundamentals indicate another bearish result."
"The latest China-EU trade spat, which saw China impose tariffs of up to 42.7% on some European dairy products, could increase New Zealand's market share to China. Further, Kiwi Cheddar has maintained a premium over global competitors for some time and this could persist amid the ongoing trade dispute."
In other trade news, the National Milk Producers Federation and U.S. Dairy Export Council welcomed the Colombian government's decision to dismiss a Subsidies and Countervailing Measures investigation on milk powder imports from the U.S. due to lack of merit. "The organizations expressed deep appreciation to the U.S. government for its collaboration with NMPF, USDEC and their members in successfully rebutting Colombia's allegations," a joint press release stated.
"NMPF and USDEC coordinated a multi-faceted response to the case," said NMPF, "which was launched in 2024 and alleged, without factual basis, that U.S. milk powders were unfairly subsidized and harmed Colombian dairy producers. Working closely with U.S. government officials, member companies and cooperatives, and Colombian industry partners, NMPF and USDEC demonstrated that the Colombian government's methodology was flawed, that assumed benefits to the U.S. dairy industry were miscalculated, and that no evidence of harm to Colombia's domestic dairy sector could be substantiated."
Meanwhile, the NMPF Exports & Trade (NEXT) program wrapped up 2025 in December, finishing with a strong fourth quarter. NEXT member cooperatives accepted 289 offers of export assistance from NEXT, helping them capture sales contracts for 20.4 million pounds of American-type cheese, 9.2 million pounds of butter, 1.1 million pounds of anhydrous milkfat, 15.4 million pounds of whole milk powder and 1.6 million pounds of cream cheese.
NEXT supported an additional 13.6 million pounds of skim milk powder and 335,000 pounds of milk protein concentrate in fourth quarter through the program's tariff mitigation pilots. NEXT exports went to customers in Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, Middle East-North Africa, Oceania, South America and Sub-Saharan Africa and will be delivered through May 2026.
In politics, Congress returned last week to plenty of unfinished work, said NMPF, "Including reauthorizing key farm bill programs not included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July. Lawmakers also face the threat of another government shutdown if they do not pass the remaining fiscal 2026 spending measures before Jan. 30."
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