Ted McKinney Talks Ag Future in Indy
Published: Friday, November 14, 2025
Indiana's Ted McKinney spoke last Tuesday at the American Society of Agricultural Consultants Conference in Indianapolis, discussing changes in pesticide policy and future considerations for agricultural trade markets.
Now the CEO of the National Assn. of State Departments of Agriculture, McKinney encouraged consultants to "watch and weigh in on EU ag policies. Support those that promote innovation." He also asked consultants to sort through biologicals being developed for agriculture and contact NASDA with the best ones; sustain soil and climate health; and help farmers through adversity.
"The EU/U.S. Framework is a very positive thing," McKinney said.
He added that details were still ambiguous as of Nov. 4, and that farm consultants should be wary of the EU's Farm to Fork initiative and the Deforestation Regulation in place, which dictate many international trade agreements.
McKinney also encouraged agricultural consultants to advocate for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
"We have got to do right by Canada and Mexico," he said. "We cannot screw up the best neighborhood on earth!"
The former USDA official and Hoosier native expects USMCA to stand, noting some positives for the agreement over the past few years, including: Justin Trudeau stepped down as Canadian prime minister, no tariffs were placed on USMCA products, the corn-decree issue was fixed, and the review is going as planned.
Speaking on China with the recent trade agreement, McKinney said he thinks it is significant that the two presidents are "cordial with each other. Mr. Xi respects strength, I think, just as Mr. Trump respects strength."
He added that China needs the U.S. and the U.S. needs China, noting manufacturing, rare earth minerals and agricultural markets.
McKinney said the current agreement is one to be watched.
"It will be telling if they miss the $12 million (metric ton) mark for this year," he said. "But I think we do have an opportunity over this next 12 months, which is the agreement, to reshape some things, remold some trust. On-shore or re-shore some things but keep working with China on their production of other things. If we decide to go to our corners and never again speak or never again trade, the world is worse off. And I just think market forces are going to drive that."
McKinney also spoke about steel and aluminum production and trade around the world.
"Most people do not know that China was deliberately trying to drive everyone out of the steel and aluminum industry," he said.
He said China had increased its steel and aluminum production six-fold and was selling it cheaper than any other country could, leaving even the U.S. with just three smelting operations.
"A super-power like the U.S.! And we were on our way out of the business," he said.
However, he said it is crucial for U.S. agriculture that America remain on good terms with China.
"We must keep China as a trading partner," he said. "In Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and others, if they all went 100% U.S. soy, it would not equal what China's buying."
Domestically, he advised caution concerning the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiative. He suspects the relief concerning harsh language on pesticides and other agricultural products found in the second commission report could be short-lived.
He added that a lack of knowledge concerning product safety is causing alarm among some consumers, creating growth in a movement that is calling for a move away from pesticide and fertilizer products, like glyphosate and other controversial applications.
"That second report can be rosy as hell, but I think it's moving stakes because we've got a crowd out there MAHA Moms is how they're characterizing themselves, just running out there and don't know about this thing," he said.
In response, NASDA has begun hosting educational webinars concerning the hot topics within the MAHA initiative.
According to McKinney, PFAS is an emerging issue in agriculture and worth keeping an eye on.
"Sometimes some PFAS might be part of a pesticide blend—not all, actually only a few—and the polyethylene tanks may have some PFAS in it. So, this is the new and coming things, and that's why we're trying very hard to keep it low-key so that we can address it professionally behind the scenes."
A new coalition is forming to advocate for ingredients to be pre-empted at only a federal level, as pesticides are.
"There is a group formed, and it's got some real strength behind it," McKinney said. "If we have a patchwork quilt of states, some that allow a certain dye, and others that don't, or states like Texas that didn't remove glyphosate, but said you've got to label it as being 'not used in a country where it's not registered,'" he said. "So, strap yourselves in because you all as you give your advice on whatever the topic may be, the label is the law, and there might be a lot of changes coming."
McKinney turned his attention to international trade and tariffs, explaining that NASDA advocates for agriculture and advises on trade ventures, laying some of the foundational grounds in partnerships, such as building trust, that result in trade deals.
He offered a wide-view picture on the tariff debates, noting that the average global tariff is set between 10-15%. He noted the tariffs set on the United Kingdom, stating he expected that rate to become the norm.
"I sense the president wants to stick at the 10-15% floor. And the U.K. was the first deal and is the best example. We have all kinds of good will with the U.K.," he said. "If the U.K., our great friends, are going to get 10-15%, I think that's the floor," he said.
McKinney expects the tariffs to be used to cut down on national debt.
"You've got to remember that we're $38 trillion in debt," he said. "We are deep into debt, we are mortgaging our kids' futures, and we are not at this point going to cut Medicare, Medicaid or Social Security. So, the piece of the pie that goes to farm bill and all the other things is shrinking, shrinking, shrinking. We've got to start there."
McKinney said Africa is a market that the U.S. is beginning to invest in and, long-term, is a necessary investment.
"Africa is a place where we need to play," he said.
He noted markets in Morocco, Kenya, Ghana, Senegal and South Africa.
"We think some of those are the most influential (markets)," he said.
Finally, he warned that if Brazil gets ahead, they could dominate the corn and soybean markets.
"We've got to stay on Brazil," he said.
He is watching the country to see where they take their relationship with China, and he added that he is also watching where India goes.
McKinney told consultants to keep farmers focused on climate health. He expects the issues of climate health to remain, despite the lesser amount of attention it gets in the current administration.
He said he does not expect climate-smart farming and sustainability will go away.
"It's right for the market, it's right for farmers, bottom line it's right for soil health, but hopefully it won't go so crazy that we find the government dictating to farmers what they need to do. They (farmers) are the best environmentalists," he said.
When asked what the next big trend in climate-smart agriculture is, he said carbon sequestration efforts are likely to return, but maybe not return at the strength in which it first came.
"If that is a movement that needs to be and does sustain itself, let's find market forces that allow for the compensation and that closed cycle," he said, adding that he thinks the government should keep a hands-off approach.
McKinney also gave an overview of NASDA, explaining its top priorities for 2025: farm bill, food systems, pesticide regulations, PFAS, and state cooperative agreements.
McKinney expects a farm bill to pass, noting the priorities accomplished on both sides of the political spectrum in the Inflation Reduction Act and the One Big Beautiful Bill.
"A lot was accomplished for each of the individual parties. They ought to come together, but I think the Democrats are still stinging from some of the One Big Beautiful Bill," he said.
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