U.S. Dry Whey Shipments to China Up 31% in August
Published: Friday, October 3, 2025
U.S. bulk tanks are bulging thanks to added cows and increased output per cow, as the industry meets in Madison, Wis. for World Dairy Expo Sept. 30 to Oct. 3.
The Agriculture Department's latest data pegged August milk output at 19.52 billion pounds, up 3.2% from August 2024, the eighth consecutive month of gain. The 24-state total, at 18.77 billion, was up 3.3%.
July production in the 50 states was revised, up a whopping 140 million pounds to 19.7 billion, up 4.2%, instead of the 3.4% originally reported. The 24-state total was revised up 139 million pounds to 18.95 billion, up 4.3%.
August cow numbers totaled 9.520 million, up 10,000 head from July, and 176,000, or 1.9%, more than a year ago. The July count was revised up 25,000 head. The 24-state count, at 9.075 million, was up 7,000 from July, and 172,000, or 1.9%, above a year ago. The July count was revised, up 28,000 head. The U.S. dairy herd is the largest since 1993, according to the Daily Dairy Report.
Output per cow averaged 2,050 pounds, up 27 pounds, or 1.3%, from a year ago in the 50 states and 2,068 pounds in the top 24, up 28 pounds, or 1.4%. Revisions added 10 pounds to July's national average and 9 pounds in the 24 states.
California output remained well above a year ago but not to the degree it did in July. August production came in at 3.4 billion pounds, up 59 million, or 1.7%, from a year ago, thanks to 8,000 more cows and a 25-pound increase per cow. Wisconsin cows put 2.76 billion pounds in the tank, up 55 million, or 2%, on a 40-pound gain per cow and 2,000 cows added to the milking string. Michigan was up 4.5% on 16,000 more cows and a 20-pound gain per cow.
StoneX points out that August fat and protein content was also up from last year, meaning component adjusted growth was up 4.8%. It adds that the July revisions means component-adjusted milk production was up 5.5%. That's a lot of milk just in the U.S., plus global production has grown 2.5-3% over the last four months.
Western United Dairies weekly newsletter reported that, while Northern California remains free of detections of bird flu, 75 dairies statewide are currently under quarantine, with 31 facing their first-ever cases. Researchers now consider the virus endemic and calls are for USDA to fast-track a dairy cow vaccine.
Meanwhile, the USDA's latest Livestock Slaughter report showed an estimated 217,400 head of dairy cows were slaughtered under federal inspection in August, down 8,400 head from July, and 13,300 head, or 5.8%, below August 2024.
Culling picked up a bit in August. The latest weekly data shows 53,900 head were sent to slaughter in the week ending Sept. 13, up 6,400 from the previous week, and 2,600 head, or 5.1%, ahead of a year ago. Year to date however, 1,839,000 cows had been culled, down 106,400 head, or 5.5%, from a year ago.
Increasing milk production increases the importance of exports. China could be a bigger player but unfortunately, it's not. Part of the problem is trade issues and dairy is not the only one affected. Reuters reports that China has bypassed U.S. soybeans for product from Argentina. That's due in large part to tariffs.
China's latest dairy import data shows that, on a 30-day adjusted basis, August skim milk powder imports printed the smallest volume since October 2016, according to HighGround Dairy, down 38.7% from a year ago. Whole milk powder imports were up 55.2%. Australia had the biggest market share, followed by Poland and Italy. Very little skim milk powder comes from the U.S. these days.
HighGround says Chinese skim milk powder ending stocks in July sat at 54,100 metric tons, nearly double the level recorded in July 2024. "Domestic SMP production ramped up quickly since the start of 2025, peaking in June at 4,500 MT. With more internal production and improved inventory levels it is not surprising imports in August languished," said HGD.
On a brighter note, China's whey imports hit 145.3 million pounds, up 4.8%, a 30-month high, according to the Sept. 23 Daily Dairy Report. The DDR stated, "Amid a pause in the trade war, the United States accounted for slightly more than half of China's dry whey imports in August, with U.S. shipments up 31.1% year over year. The United States and China remain on polite terms, for now, after President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached an agreement to place a version of TikTok under U.S. owners."
August cheese imports totaled 27.2 million pounds, down 12.2%, largest year-on-year decline since November 2024, according to HGD.
Butter imports amounted to 9.3 million pounds, down 26.8%, lowest monthly volume on a 30-day adjusted basis since September 2020, says HGD. "Although U.S. butter prices have maintained a significant discount to European and New Zealand product since the start of the year, trade tensions with the U.S. deter Chinese buyers who opted instead to pick up more product from Belgium and the Netherlands."
Cash 40-pound block Cheddar fell to $1.61 per pound last Monday, lowest CME price since June 24, then regained 3 cents, only to close the last Friday of September at $1.6250, as traders anticipated the afternoon's August Cold Storage report. That's down 2.50 cents on the week and 48.50 cents below a year ago.
The 500-pound Cheddar barrels dipped to $1.61 per pound last Wednesday, lowest since March 21, but they finished last Friday at $1.6225, 1.75 cents lower on the week, and 67.50 cents below this week a year ago when they plunged 29.25 cents. CME sales amounted to 28 loads of block and two of barrel.
Milk production is steady to higher in the Central region, according to Dairy Market News. Contacts in the Southwest say warm weather is keeping output steady, while others in the Midwest report cooler temperatures are having a positive impact on production. Spot Class III milk is becoming more available, though some cheesemakers say they are already running full schedules and are not purchasing any extra. Prices mid-week were down from last week, ranging from $1-under to flat class. Cheese production is steady in the Central region. Domestic cheese demand is steady while international sales remain strong.
Cheese manufacturers in the West report that milk is available despite seasonal bottling demands. Cheese production is steady to stronger. Domestic cheese demand is steady while export demand is steady to strong. Some say that export demand is helping to keep somewhat of a floor on domestic prices despite more competitiveness among international sellers. CME cheese prices topped last Wednesday's butter price for the first time since 2021.
Cash butter's meltdown continued last week, the 12th week of decline, and dipped to $1.62 per pound last Wednesday, lowest CME price since Aug. 4, 2021. However, the butter regained 2 cents last Thursday and added 8 cents last Friday to close at $1.72, still 3 cents lower on the week and $1.0125 below a year ago. There were 74 sales on the week, highest total since in 15 weeks.
Contacts tell DMN that milk production and components are up from a year ago, leaving plenty of cream available. Cream demand is steady to lighter. Butter makers are running busy production, but some are exclusively using internal cream and are not in the market for more. Domestic butter demand is steady to lighter while export interest remains strong. Inventories of 82% butterfat butter for export are tight, but domestic 80% butter inventories are available.
Cream remains widely available in the West and demand from butter producers varies from steady to stronger with more affordable prices. Butter production is steady to stronger and manufacturers report that retail production is their priority. Some report tight unsalted butter availability, while salted loads are readily available. Buyers are beginning to secure first and second quarter 2026 needs. Domestic butter demand is mostly steady. Export demand is stronger says DMN.
Grade A nonfat dry milk closed the week at $1.1550 per pound, up .75 cents, but 20.25 cents below a year ago, on 31 CME sales.
Dry whey closed last Friday at 64.75 cents per pound, up .75 cents, highest since Jan. 30, and a nickel above a year ago with only one sale logged on the week.
Return to Top of Page