Trade Is Key to Soybean Price Margin
Published: Friday, September 5, 2025
According to Purdue University agricultural economist Michael Langemeier, the soybean industry could rebound above bottom dollar if trade uncertainties are relieved soon.
"If we could resolve that export uncertainty, we would see a pop in soybean prices," Lange-meier told farmers at the Pinney Purdue field day on Aug. 20.
The export market is down by 9%, he said. Much of that is due to the tariffs on China. Langemeier added that tariffs have likely impacted the nation's long-term ability to export soybeans.
"Demand is OK on the crush side. The crush side is crushing it," he added.
The U.S. soybean condition shows below average stocks-to-use, a higher expected yield and fewer planted acres in 2025. Langemeier reported that soybeans are on track for an-other record year in yields, trending about 1.5 bushels per acre higher than last year, de-spite having 7% fewer acres due to a swing toward corn in Nebraska.
The August World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report shows soybean prices at $10.10 per bushel. Stocks-to-use is at 6.7%, which Langemeier said is somewhat tight but not overly constrictive. Production is down 1.7%.
He expects soybean acres to increase to about 86 million acres next year.
The price outlook includes $4 corn and $10.40 soybeans. Under a more optimistic scenario, if prices are high, these futures rise to about $4.28 for corn and $10.88 for soybeans. Next fall, futures are expected to be $4.50 corn and $10.70 soybeans. This is a lot closer to the breakeven price of $11.50 for soybeans.
"So far the market is telling us to plant more soybeans next year," Langemeier said.
Corn has a similar economic outlook.
Higher input costs have the biggest impact on corn, Langemeier said.
"Yes, the cost is low, but the breakeven price is about 25% higher than it was prior to COVID."
The breakeven price for corn is $5 per bushel. Currently, corn prices are over a dollar below the line, with an average of $3.90 across the board.
Corn demand is "firing on all cylinders" with highs in exports, ethanol and feed industries. This is due to the highest corn acreage since 2007, high yields compared to last year, in-creases in production and high demand.
Corn conditions across the U.S. are largely rated good to excellent, with a record corn crop expected this harvest season. In fact, Langemeier said they are expected to be 10% higher than any previous record.
States with record corn predictions include: Iowa, South Dakota, Illinois, Indiana and Minnesota.
Although demand is strong, stocks-to-use is just 13.3%. The average is approximately 11%. According to the WASDE report, about 35-40% of corn use goes to ethanol and feed, with exports between 15-18%.
"This reminds me of the 2014-19 period. It had the same stocks-to-use, but the difference is breakevens; '25 is going to be worse than 2015," Langemeier said.
He said anytime stocks-to-use rises above 12%, farmers start seeing $4 corn.
Langemeier said one way to decrease that ratio is by planting less corn, which he expects to happen next year. One contributor to this year's rise was a 2-million-acre shift from soy-beans to corn, which, as stated above, was largely due to a rise in corn planting in Nebraska.
He does not expect a "pop" in corn prices in the spring.
Switching gears, Langemeier said the farm safety net created over the summer (in the One Big Beautiful Bill) is larger than the previous one, which is a positive for farmers. He said PLC payouts that will come in 2026 (for this year's crops) will be pretty sizeable.
Moving to agricultural land values, he said that in Indiana, cash rents are up 1.5% due to a 5% rise in land values.
Langemeier also said he has seen weakness in cash rent across the western Corn Belt. He expects land values to remain up slightly over the next 12 months. He said liquidity is down as well, so the balance sheets still look decent, but he said it is critical that land values stay down over the next year in order to maintain the delicate balance.
Langemeier also reviewed farmer sentiment over the month of July. Sentiment has re-mained high due to an overall positive outlook on current political policy and high markets in the livestock sector.
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