Telling Your Story
It looks like China is turning up its nose to purchasing U.S. soybeans, at least for now. According to an Illinois Farm Policy News statement dated Aug. 27, zero cargo loads for the 2025-26 rapidly approaching season have been recorded as sold to China, according to a USDA report.
The U.S. shipping season for soybeans typically begins in September, then Southern Hemisphere shipments become dominant in February. Brazil has commanded 66% of soybean market share in China trade since 2020, compared 27% share for the U.S. in the same period. Ouch.
With China absent from the market, prices continue to shrink the closer we get to harvest time. Farmers in the Northern Plains are seeing $9 beans, and even $8 could be a reality this fall. AgWeb's Tyne Morgan noted that the basis is crashing, and North Dakota seems especially hard hit. Maddock, N.D. has a negative $1.65 basis and cash soybeans were at $8.83 last week. A negative $1.45 basis brings the cash price in Carrington, N.D. to $9.03.
Should an end to the trade war get pushed even further into the future, reports look as though Brazil has enough soybeans stockpiled to supply China even if the U.S. provided little or no product this shipping season.
USDA appears to be considering some sort of emergency bridge payments to carry producers through the winter and into the next planting season. Congress did prop up payments in the two main commodity programs—ARC and PLC—during the budget reconciliation process, but producers won't see those payments until October of 2026, and the crisis looms on a horizon much sooner than 13 months into the future.
Emergency payments, while helpful, are only a band-aid to the real problem of market access and prices that provide margins that keep farmers operating at a level beyond simply getting by and breaking even. Is there any wonder why farmer outlook is sinking, and farm and family mental health is getting a lot of attention?
It can be hard to see the actual value of international trade and investing dollars into building trade partners. But the situation we are experiencing with a trade war and loss (even if temporary) of a major trading partner gives us a clear picture of how moving product out of the domestic stockpile and trading to other countries has a direct impact on the check for each load of beans delivered to the buyer.
The American Soybean Assn. is urging the administration to reach a trade agreement with China so business can resume as normal. The National Corn Growers Assn. is urging Congress to approve year-round E-15 before the year's end.
Take a deep breath, then breathe in and breathe out before opening the envelope to look at those commodity checks, at least for the time being.
Bev Berens is a freelance writer and empty nester from Vestaburg, Mich. She can be contacted at uphillfarm494@yahoo.com.