U.S. Dairies Produced 226 Billion Pounds of Milk, Down .2% from '23
Published: Friday, March 7, 2025
The following is from Lee Mielke, author of a dairy market column known as "Mielke Market Weekly."
The Agriculture Department's latest preliminary data shows January milk production hit 19.1 billion pounds, up .1% from January 2024, following a .5% decline in December. Output in the top 24 states totaled 18.3 billion, up .2%, after slipping .4% in December. December output was revised down 3 million pounds in the 50 states and was unchanged in the 24-state data.
January cow numbers, at 9.37 million, were up 10,000 head from December and 41,000 more than a year ago. The December count was revised up 4,000 head. The 24-state count, at 8.9 million, was up 9,000 from December and 54,000 above a year ago. The December count was revised up 5,000 head.
Milk output for all of 2024 was reported at 226 billion pounds, down .2% from 2023. Revisions to 2023 production decreased the annual total by 53 million pounds. Revised 2024 production was up 14 million pounds from last month's estimate. Annual milk production has increased 8.3% from 2015, says USDA.
Lots of eyes were on the California, which continues the battle with bird flu. Variants in several states are keeping the war going. January output in the nation's No. 1 milk producer was down a whopping 203 million pounds, or 5.7%, from a year ago. December output was revised down 43 million pounds, resulting in an 8% decline from a year ago, instead of the 6.8% reported.
Wisconsin's January output was down 17 million pounds or .6%, from a year ago, on 5,000 fewer cows, and output per cow being down 5 pounds.
Idaho output was up a hefty 88 million pounds, or 6.4%, from a year ago, thanks to 27,000 more cows and a 45-pound gain per cow. Idaho's December output was revised up 35 million pounds, a 6.1% increase from
December 2023, instead of the 3.5% originally reported.
Michigan was up .7% on 1,000 more cows and a 10-pound gain per cow.
The week ending Feb. 15 saw 53,500 dairy cows sent to slaughter, down 2,500 from the previous week, but 5,800, or 9.8%, below a year ago. Year to date, 376,000 had been culled, down 20,700 head, or 5.2%, from a year ago.
The higher fat and protein content of U.S. milk has resulted in plenty of butter and cheese and more butter in storage. USDA's latest Cold Storage report shows Jan. 31 butter stocks totaled 270.3 million pounds, up a whopping 56 million, or 26.1%, from December, and up 22.7 million pounds, or 9.2%, from January 2024. December stocks were revised down 8.1 million pounds.
The American-type cheese inventory inched up to 777.6 million pounds, up 6.5 million, or .8%, from December's level, but was down 62.2 million pounds, or 7.4%, from a year ago. The December total was revised 1.4 million pounds lower.
The "other" cheese category climbed to 573 million pounds, up 13.6 million pounds, or 2.4%, from the December level, but was down 21.9 million, or 3.7%, from a year ago. December's level was revised up by 435,000 pounds.
The total cheese inventory hit 1.37 billion pounds, up 19.9 million pounds, or 1.5%, from December, but down 82.4 million pounds, or 5.7%, from a year ago as competitive U.S. prices attracted plenty of global buyers for our cheese.
StoneX says the report suggests that butter demand was better than thought for December and probably January as well. It adds, "This was the biggest cheese decline we've seen in January in at least two decades and would argue for CME block close to $2 per pound, even though they averaged $1.88 for the month."
Checking Chicago, cash block Cheddar closed last Friday and the month of February at $1.7750 per pound, down 12.50 cents on the week, lowest CME price in five weeks, down 8.75 cents on the month, but still 22.50 cents above a year ago.
The barrels closed at $1.78, lowest in three weeks, 2 cents lower on the week, a penny lower on the month, and 13 cents above a year ago. Block sales totaled 13 for the week and 41 for the month of February, down from 67 in January. Barrel sales totaled 8 for the week and 28 for the month, down from 36 in January.
Midwest cheesemakers reported mixed results on demand, according to Dairy Market News. Most said weekly sales are steady to busy. Some retail and cut-and-wrap cheesemakers say orders are somewhat quiet. Per the norm, milk availability varies although there were some extra loads on the market this week. Prices at mid-week were $2.50-under to Class III. Some contacts say milk availability seems to be closer to flush territory while others said milk offers have not increased. Cheese markets are not bullish or bearish, says DMN, and near-term tones are questionable despite CME prices maintaining relative steadiness.
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