McKinney: Expect Farm Bill by Spring
Published: Friday, December 22, 2023
Sounding an optimistic tone, Ted McKinney, chief executive officer of the National Assn. of State Departments of Agriculture, said the odds are good that Congress will pass a new farm bill before the 2024 election, possibly by as soon as April. However, expressing a degree of caution, he said farmers should get ready for a potential "food fight" over California's Prop 12 and brace for regulations relating to the Endangered Species Act.
McKinney, an Indiana native and former USDA undersecretary of agriculture for trade and foreign agricultural affairs, was the luncheon speaker at the Indiana Farm Bureau Convention last Friday in Fort Wayne.
"I still have hopes, no more than 50-50, that we will get it by April," McKinney said, referring to the farm bill. "I think after that, the silly season sets in, and this thing gets pushed off to after the election."
He said U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who is chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, will be highly motivated to pass a farm bill next year during her final term as chairman.
As McKinney said, "She wants to get this done, and she wants her fingerprints on it."
Right now, leaders of the House and Senate Ag Committees are posturing as the debate heats up. McKinney predicted the debate will come down to one issue: farm programs versus nutrition. The Nutrition Title represents 85% of farm bill spending.
"I happen to be on both sides of that," McKinney said. "I do believe that we want kids to go to school with protein and the ability to learn and not fall asleep or be undernourished. But, holy smokes, Batman, let me just tell you . . . my goodness, we've been spending money."
As to what might get in and what might get cut, McKinney believes one of Farm Bureau's legislative priorities, crop insurance, will be protected.
"But remember, right now, it's a flat budget," he said, meaning that any spending increase in one area will necessitate spending cuts in another. "How do you rob Peter to pay Paul?"
He said it's anyone's guess how this will play out. McKinney said NASDA would like to see more investment in agricultural research.
"We've got kids turning away from schools of ag because infrastructure, laboratories, are antiquated," he said.
Turning to other subjects, McKinney listed several emerging issues that represent a threat to U.S. agriculture. One of them is the Endangered Species Act. He said the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has designated large swaths of the Corn Belt as watch areas for endangered species. That means farmers in those areas face limitations on how much pesticides and fertilizers they can use.
McKinney said he wants to protect endangered species, but he questioned the worthwhile nature of these regulations considering the high cost to the farming industry. He estimated the cost to be in the trillions of dollars. He said this is part of an overall trend that villainizes pesticides and fertilizers.
He added that EPA is following a new formula when designating a watch area. No longer does the agency perform a cost-benefit analysis, McKinney said. Rather, "if a species is threatened, it does not matter what the benefit is. It's saved. I would rather do the research to see if that was ever a wildlife habitat."
McKinney said farmers should be proactive and do some research to determine if they have any habitats on their farms for endangered species.
Animal welfare is also an emerging issue. California's Prop 12, which requires that all pork products imported into that state for sale come from farms that have minimum space requirements for breeding sows. The American Farm Bureau Federation and the National Pork Producers Council both filed a legal challenge to Prop 12, asking the court to invalidate it. However, on May 11, the Supreme Court upheld the law.
McKinney said he expects Prop 12 will raise the price of pork sold in California.
"I'm hoping they'll find that pork, at 25% higher prices now, is not the answer," he said. "Get ready for a food fight, but remember, let's try to fight fair."
Earlier in the day, Farm Bureau members heard a presentation on new technologies that have the potential to transform the food system. Some of those technologies include robots, cell-grown meat, artificial intelligence, virtual reality and 3D printing.
While it is true that the use of agricultural technology is increasing, McKinney said it's also true that there is a strong pushback against certain innovations that could make farming even more efficient and productive. He said the rejection of technology could prevent the agriculture industry from producing enough food for a growing world population.
"The world is accepting technologies but at a much slower pace than the world needs," he said.
Other concerns, according to McKinney, relate to Europe's influence on the food system, climate change, U.S. inflation, growing Chinese influence in Africa, and an increase in regulatory burdens here in the U.S.
McKinney said climate change is a fact, but he added that agriculture has been unfairly blamed as the cause of it.
"We have got to, got to, got to, make sure that agriculture is seen on the side of helping fix and address climate change," he said. "I think that's where the tendency is, but you cannot presume it's going to stay that way."
At the recently concluded COP28, the United Nations' climate change conference, McKinney said he was concerned by some of the rhetoric but was pleased, overall, that attendees viewed agriculture as part of the solution.
"Let's stay on that side, because you do not want to be on the other side," he said.
Regarding China, McKinney said that that country has made significant investments in Africa. However, he said African countries are now starting to wake up to what China expects in return.
"They're recognizing that they can't cozy up to China," he said. "China is buying and building every interstate, every bridge, every road, and Huawei (a Chinese company) wire is going down alongside every single bit of it."
McKinney added that the U.S. needs to continue to protect the narrow straight that divides Taiwan and mainland China. He said a third of global agricultural trade passes through that straight.
"We've got to keep those lanes open," he said.
He added that the U.S. needs to have an alternative market for soybeans in case China were to invade Taiwan. He suggested that sustainable aviation fuels, or SAF, would be one possibility.
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