U.S. Milk Production Revs Higher
Published: Friday, October 30, 2020
The following is from Lee Mielke, author of a dairy market column known as "Mielke Market Weekly."
U.S. milk production continues to rev higher. Preliminary data in September's Milk Production report shows output at 18 billion pounds, up a more than expected 2.3 percent from September 2019, highest increase since March. Output in the top 24 producing states totaled 17.2 billion pounds, up 2.4 percent from 2019.
Third quarter milk output totaled 55.3 billion pounds, up 2 percent from a year ago. Cow numbers averaged 9.36 million, up 39,000 from the same period last year.
September cow numbers totaled 9.366 million head in the 50 states, up 5,000 from August and 33,000 above a year ago. Output per cow averaged 1,923 pounds, up 38 pounds from a year ago, or a hefty 2 percent.
California output was up 3.2 percent from a year ago, thanks to a 65-pound gain per cow offsetting 4,000 fewer cows milked. Wisconsin was up .7 percent, despite 10,000 fewer cows, but output per cow was up 30 pounds. Other states: Idaho, up 2.9 percent; Michigan, up 2.3 percent; Minnesota, up 2.7 percent; and New Mexico, down .9 percent.
HighGround Dairy points out, "Farmers in most regions of the country spent government Corona Virus Food Assistance Program payments to drive milk production and components higher and take advantage of a profitable milk price." It was the first time since March that milk volume exceeded prior years by more than 2 percent, according to HGD. HGD's Lucas Fuess reported in the Oct. 26 "Dairy Radio Now" broadcast that milk per cow exceeded predictions and that September marked the third consecutive month of milking herd growth.
The 2 percent increase in milk per cow growth is double the long-term 1 percent growth, according to Fuess. He also pointed to California's 3.2 percent increase, calling it "staggering," and said a lot of that likely went into butter and nonfat dry milk.
Midwest states' output was also higher, he said, including Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, plus a new cheese plant came on line last week in St. Johns, Mich. He said he sees continued growth in milk output into 2021 and said it will be "tricky not to move into an oversupplied situation." He warned that milk prices could dip to unprofitable levels, depending on what happens to the government Food Box program.
Dairy cow culling jumped in September, according to the latest Livestock Slaughter report, but was below a year ago. An estimated 249,900 head were sent to slaughter under federal inspection, up 24,600 head, or 10.9 percent, from August but 5,700, or 2.2 percent, below September 2019. A total of 2.3 million head have been culled in the first nine months of 2020, down 115,500 head, or 4.8 percent, from 2019.
In the week ending Oct. 10, 57,200 dairy cows were sent to slaughter, down 600 from the week before, and 5,800 head, or 10.1 percent, below that week a year ago.
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