2020 Begins with More Corn in Storage
Published: Friday, January 24, 2020
The following is from Lee Mielke, author of a dairy market column known as "Mielke Market Weekly."
This month's 2019-20 U.S. corn outlook is for greater beginning stocks, slightly higher production, reduced food, seed and industrial use, larger feed and residual use, lower exports, and smaller ending stocks. Beginning stocks were raised 107 million bushels, reflecting upward revisions to both on-farm and off-farm stocks as of Sept. 1, as reported in the Grain Stocks report.
Corn production was estimated at 13.69 billion bushels, up 31 million as a higher yield more than offset a reduction in harvested area. Total corn use is up 155 million bushels to 14.07 billion. Exports were reduced 75 million bushels to 1.775 billion, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, and the lowest level of outstanding sales as of early January since the 2012-13 market year. With use rising more than supply, 2019-20 corn stocks were reduced 18 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $3.85 per bushel.
Soybean production was estimated at 3.56 billion bushels, up 8 million on a higher yield. Harvested area was estimated at 75 million acres. Yield was estimated at 47.4 bushels per acre, up 5 million bushels, led by increases for Illinois and Indiana. Soybean supplies were relatively unchanged, as lower beginning stocks and imports offset higher production. With crush and export forecasts unchanged, ending stocks were projected at 475 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019-20 was forecast at $9 per bushel, up 15 cents, in part reflecting stronger soybean oil prices. The soybean oil price forecast was raised 3 cents to 34 cents per pound. The soybean meal price forecast was reduced $5 to $305 per short ton.
This month's outlook for cotton includes lower production and ending stocks compared with last month, while domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Production was lowered 100,000 bales, mainly due to a decline in Texas which was partially offset in other states. Ending stocks are 100,000 bales lower this month at 5.4 million bales. Upland cotton season-average price received by farmers is projected 2 cents higher than a month ago at 63 cents per pound, based on stronger-than-expected early season prices.
Looking back on 2019, corn for grain production was estimated at 13.7 billion bushels, down 5 percent from the revised 2018 estimate. The average yield was estimated at 168 bushels per acre, 8.4 bushels below 2018. Area harvested for grain was estimated at 81.5 million acres, up less than 1 percent from the revised 2018 estimate.
Soybean production totaled 3.56 billion bushels, down 20 percent from 2018. The average yield per acre was
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